Steiner: Ferrari Must Put Everything Behind Hamilton to Win 2026 Title

When Guenther Steiner sat before the microphone of The Red Flags Podcast in the middle of the 2026 season, he was not talking about lap times or aerodynamic upgrade packages. The former Haas team principal was talking about something else — the allocation of resources in a championship fight. With a 59-point gap between Kimi Antonelli and George Russell at Mercedes, and Lewis Hamilton leading Charles Leclerc in the same Ferrari, the picture of the 2026 season is clearer than ever: this is a two-team battle, and each team must choose a path. Steiner, who led Haas from its founding days to a respectable midfield position, understands better than anyone that in a competitive season, team management decisions can matter more than any upgrade package. The 2026 season is the first year of a new regulation cycle — internal combustion engines with 50% electrification, active aerodynamics, and an unprecedented redistribution of power. Red Bull no longer dominates as it did during the ground-effect era of 2026-2026. Instead, Ferrari and Mercedes have emerged as the two main contenders. Antonelli, the Italian rookie at Mercedes, leads the championship with 59 points more than teammate Russell — a massive intra-team gap reflecting both pace and consistency. Hamilton, at age 41, is proving his decision to leave Mercedes for Ferrari was correct by outperforming Leclerc in the same car. Notably, Hamilton and Russell are level on points — an interesting data point suggesting the two cars have comparable performance, and the championship race is essentially a race between two team management systems. Steiner argues that Ferrari must put all its resources behind Hamilton. "If they are serious about winning, they have to put everything behind Lewis," Steiner said. The reason is simple: Hamilton is ahead of Leclerc, and in a tight championship fight, spreading points between two drivers is a strategic mistake. Steiner predicts Fred Vasseur will implement team orders — "they will say they need to put their money on one driver, not have 'papaya rules'." This is a sharp historical comparison: McLaren with its policy of letting both drivers race freely has paid the price in points in recent seasons. On the Mercedes side, Steiner points out that Antonelli is young and needs to make mistakes. "Kimi is young, and Mercedes sometimes has trouble with the car, including mechanical issues." These are the two variables Hamilton needs: rival mistakes and rival team instability. In the context of the new 2026 regulations, mechanical issues could become more severe as new engine components accumulate mileage. This is a potential risk Mercedes must face in the second half of the season. The interesting thing is that Steiner does not believe Ferrari can win on pure merit. He repeatedly emphasizes external factors — Antonelli's mistakes, Mercedes' issues — rather than Ferrari's own pace. This is an implicit admission that Mercedes has the faster car in the 2026 season. And that is why he says there is "a small chance" for Hamilton to claim his eighth title. But it is precisely this honesty that makes Steiner's analysis more valuable — he is not selling a dream, he is selling a conditional scenario. The story of Hamilton's eighth title is not just a sporting story — it is a commercial asset. Steiner admits: "It would be a great moment for the sport if somebody wins eight championships." But with a 59-point gap, the actual probability is low. The question arises: will Ferrari dare to bet everything on a scenario dependent on rival mistakes? And will Antonelli, with his talent and youth, allow that scenario to happen?